Irish Alert #4823 - Tournament Time (Previewing Notre Dame's Section of the 2025 NCAA Bracket)
Notre Dame is once again hosting the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Let's see who's coming to town!
The time has come for the funnest weekend of the year: the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament! In this edition I’ve got previews for everyone beginning their tournament in Purcell Pavilion, bar the Irish: clicking on links to Stephen F. Austin, Michigan, Iowa State, and Princeton should help you jump around if you’re reading this on a browser, and here’s the link to the bracket pool if you’d like to join.
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Notre Dame is a three-seed in this year’s tournament after really skidding to a halt at the end of the season. This team was #1 on February 23rd, just 23 days ago, and now they are #11 on the seed line. Last year they were the eighth overall seed; the year before they were the ninth.
To make matters worse (maybe?), people say Notre Dame’s region is the toughest. I think the caveat here is that the thing making it the toughest is Notre Dame. ND and LSU are the most threatening of the three-seeds, which is why people look at Spokane 1 (UCLA) and Birmingham 3 (Texas) as the regions least likely for their 1-seeds to make a clean sweep.
Calling the region hard also likely has to do with the chance for early-round upsets across the entire region. In ND’s quadrant, Creighton and Illinois could realistically both challenge Texas with their offense right from round two. Ohio State was right up with the elite this season at full strength, and we could get the Tennessee who beat UConn or the one who fell to Georgia. Nebraska or yes, even Louisville could upset TCU, and people do seem to think Michigan or Iowa State could upset the Irish on their own home floor, too. The way I see it, it’s a favorable region for the Irish assuming they get past the first weekend. For a team whose ceiling has seemed to be forced against the Sweet 16 these past few years, this is the region that may provide the best opportunity to break through.
Elsewhere, the mid-majors are far more potent. South Dakota State and FGCU are trendy upset picks in Spokane 4, where people are mostly waiting to see whether Iowa can go nearly as far this year without Caitlin Clark and whether UConn will avenge its loss to USC should both teams make it. Lindsay Gottlieb felt disrespected by their receiving a 1-seed which scanned like she is very scared of the Huskies, so that Elite Eight game should be a great one if it comes to pass.
In Birmingham 2, Scott Rueck once again has Oregon State is clicking at the exact right time when they came sort of out of nowhere to win the WCC tournament. They could give UNC a run for their money if we get Bad Courtney Banghart. Meanwhile, the local-ish matchup between Diamond Johnson’s Norfolk State and a depleted Maryland team could be a thriller, and Green Bay has what it takes to take down Alabama. That region feels like South Carolina’s to lose, but the potential Sweet 16 game between UNC and Duke could be sicko-level stuff.
Finally, in Spokane 1, the aforementioned hurdle of LSU is a threat to UCLA and 2-seed NC State. The Wolfpack will likely make it out of Raleigh, but it will take overcoming Michigan State or Harvard, two extremely strong teams and one with the electric guard Harmoni Turner, who scored 68 points in two games for her Crimson to win Ivy Madness this past weekend. Ball State and GCU are fascinating low-seeds at Baylor, but if the Bears and Ole Miss can overcome them, that would be a second-round game for the ages. George Mason, the final mid-major in the region, gets to open against Ta’Niya Latson and FSU, and actually matches up with them pretty well.
For the Irish though, the journey will start at home against the Ladyjacks of Stephen F. Austin. Win one, and proceed. It might be the most thrilling (read: stressful) tournament under Ivy so far - certainly the one with the highest expectations, the healthiest players, and the most confusion surrounding the team going in. The team has come up against its floor recently, but that floor is so high that maybe it doesn’t matter. If they can scratch their ceiling, Notre Dame has a chance to do something really special.
The first game for the Irish will be on Friday (the best day, with 16 men’s games and 16 women’s games), at 2 PM on ESPN. Pam Ward and Stephanie White will have the call as Notre Dame takes the court. Without further ado, here’s a rundown on each team:
(14) Stephen F. Austin [Southland Champions (3rd); 29-5, 16-4]
Notre Dame opens its tournament run on Friday at 2 PM on ESPN against the Ladyjacks of Stephen F. Austin! It’ll be the first time these two teams meet, but you may remember Stephen F. Austin from when the men’s team played them in 2016 and won on this Rex Pfleuger tip-in.
If Friday’s game is that close, we’ll know we have a big, big problem. I actually think SFA is a worse team than last year’s 15-seed Kent State that Notre Dame defeated by 14 in the first round. I expect this game not to be as close for a few reasons - SFA isn’t the old, experienced team that Kent State had, and they play in a far weaker conference year-in and year-out.
In fact, SFA’s only game against a major-conference team this year was a 10-point loss to Texas Tech, the eventual 14-seed in the Big 12 tournament. Otherwise, their schedule was unfathomably weak, although they are currently on a 15-game win streak so at least they’ve done an admirable job with it.
This game will not be close for long, but it could provide a nice early primer for the Irish as to what they could see for the rest of the tournament. SFA won the Southland conference tournament by defeating Southeastern Louisiana, the conference’s top team who is deep and known for their prolific transition game. Sound familiar? Notre Dame will have opposition laser-focused on stopping transition all tournament long, but SFA has proven it can do it. At the very least, it should get the Irish into a mindset that will help moving forward.
The Ladyjacks are balanced, with five players scoring in double figures. They’ve got two 40% three-point shooters in Harmanie Dominguez and Avery VanSickle. That spreads them out and allows guards to drive or feed the post. But, when they’re bad, they’re frankly awful. They can be prone to spurts of turnovers. They’re extremely susceptible to back cuts and high-lows. They had a lot of uncalled travels in their conference tournament. If they’re not locked in on the boards, they give up a lot of second-chance points. They don’t quite always look like they know what they’re doing, unless and until they suddenly get the outcome they want.
This won’t be a close game.
(6) Michigan [Big Ten At-Large (5th); 22-10, 11-7]
Although Massey has Michigan and Iowa State at almost a coin flip, the presumed second-round matchup would be against Michigan if the pod is chalk. If Notre Dame is caught sleeping, it could be in for a long afternoon, but on paper the Irish are clearly better.
Michigan gained a lot of popularity - both welcome and unwelcome - after star freshman Syla Swords scored 27 points in a six-point opening-night loss to South Carolina. Swords (Kate Koval’s highschool teammate) and her freshman runningmate Olivia Olson have been instrumental in Michigan’s success this year, rounding out a talented roster. They, along with seniors Jordan Hobbs and Greta Kampschroeder, have the talent and size to compete in the backcourt on a high level, but they just can’t seem to pull out a win against the best competition.
The Wolverines are 3-7 against ranked opposition this year, those three wins being road wins against Michigan State and pretender Minnesota, and a tournament win over incomplete Maryland. When up against USC and UCLA and full-strength Ohio State, they’ve floundered. At home, they lost to Michigan State by 30.
Still, Michigan is probably a good delimiter between the pretenders and the legitimate teams in the country. They’re well coached (Kim Barnes Arico is great and Notre Dame’s own Natalie Achonwa now leads their posts) and they play with a great pace. They are a good shooting team and know how to select their shots well. They haven’t quite proven it as much, but they’ve been rated on par with Florida State pretty much all season and it’d be foolish to look past them given how the most recent home game against Florida State went for the Irish.
Michigan’s one pretty big weakness is post defense (Kate Koval could have a great day against them). They defend against the drive well, and collapse on the paint just fine, but they will either sacrifice the three ball or the post, and they don’t do well against a team with threats of both. They start five big guards, ranging from Mila Holloway at 5’10” to Jordan Hobbs at 6’3”. Hobbs is tall, but still a guard (a la Cass Prosper), but Olson sort of plays the biggest of the starters at 6’1”, so they have a big hole down low. Their bench can fortify that position spottily, but I still see it as a weakness. If ND faces them, I’d hope the Irish could exploit that hole. If Michigan loses in round one, that hole could also play a big part…
(11) Iowa State [Big 12 At-Large (7th); 22-11, 12-6]
Iowa State is a scary team to have in Notre Dame’s pod, precisely because of their post presence. Michigan, along with the entire country, had better watch out for Audi Crooks, the imposing 6’3” sophomore star. If Crooks & co. can get past the Wolverines, they could cause fits for the Irish.
The Cyclones have been a mainstay in the sport for years, but nowadays their identity is inextricably entwined with Crooks. They were a preseason Top 10 team mainly because of the promise Crooks provided last season: in a conference known for its bigs, the always-solid Cyclones were finally equipped with one of their own, and they succeeded in defeating Baylor multiple times and defeating Kansas State. They were sent to Stanford as a 7-seed and fell to Cam Brink, Kiki Iriafen and the Cardinal in an overtime thriller that was probably the game of the tournament. At the time, they had a great outlook for this season.
Then, they came down to Earth a little and expectations adjusted. They lost to South Carolina by 40, UConn by 33, Iowa, Northern Iowa, and a smattering of Big 12 teams which put them squarely in the center of the conference. They haven’t shown that they can truly compete with the best of the best this year, but they are clicking at the right time and their momentum is back on the upswing now that we’ve reached the finale.
To overlook the Cyclones would be foolish. They were rated so highly preseason for a reason. If this game does happen, I would expect the Irish to take it as seriuosly as possible, and I’d also expect it Iowa State to be a tough nut to crack. (Massey would have the Irish winning 75% of the time or so.)
In addition to furthering the mission of Hannah Hidalgo maliciously vanquishing every other member of her stellar graduating class, this game could provide some glimpses at how the Irish as a whole deal with a player with the gravity of a Crooks. With fellow sophomore Addy Brown alongside Crooks down low, things can get really dicey if ND doesn’t employ some size of its own. On the outskirts, Emily Ryan is a fifth-year senior who has had a long and prosperous career at ISU and won’t go down quietly. Sophomore Kelsey Joens, whose sisters have funneled through Ames like a conga line, is another impact starter for this young squad.
Where the Cyclones have fallen off is in their depth. Crooks and Brown combine for 50% of the team’s production this season, up from 43% a year ago. Ryan’s numbers are down and she is the team’s third-leading scorer. Bill Fennelly loves playing a seven-player rotation, but that rotation had more options last year.
If Notre Dame does meet them, the Irish should emerge victorious if they mitigate any mismatches in the post. But, Crooks, like NC State’s Tilda Trygger or TCU’s Sedona Prince or FSU’s Mikayla Timpson, could wind up dismantling the Irish down low. She’s not quite as tall as those other players, but she will create space for herself in ways that ND hasn’t seen this season outside of maybe Texas’s Kyla Oldacre.
(11) Princeton [Ivy At-Large (2nd); 21-7, 12-2]
Notre Dame will host a First Four game for the second time in three years, and the final team coming to town is Princeton! For the first time ever, the Ivy League has three bids in the tournament, and the Tigers are the third — Columbia won the regular season and Harvard won the conference tournament.
Princeton is a solid team, with a few tournament wins in the ‘20s, including an upset of 6-seed Kentucky in 2022 before taking 3-seed Indiana to the wire in Bloomington, and an upset of 7-seed NC State in 2023 before taking 2-seed Utah to the wire in Salt Lake City. Last year, they made life hard for West Virginia in the first round before losing by 10.
This year, they’re probably not quite as talented, and I don’t think they match up well against Iowa State. Their best wins are over Harvard twice, and their only major-conference win is a putrid Rutgers. Their best player, Madison St. Rose, was injured early on, and while they ostensibly play up to 10 players, the vast majority goes to five.
I have a very hard time imagining them winning two games and facing ND, but if that were to happen, I think the Irish would have no issue dismantling the Tigers. Carla Berube is a good coach, but with just one rotational player at above 6 foot, she’d have a tough time matching up against the size and speed of the Irish. Like Iowa State, the sophomores on Princeton are their most prized players: Fadima Tall, Ashley Chea, and Skye Belker. But unlike Iowa State, none of them are imposing. Tall is 6’0”, Belker 5’9”, and Chea, the leading scorer, just 5’8”.
If this game happens, Notre Dame has lucked out. Like in games against most outmatched opponents, the team will be able to use their size at every position as an advantage.
That’s all from me for this week! I can’t believe the tournament is already here. In a way, irrespective of what happened this season, it feels like we’ve been waiting since the Oregon State game for this very moment.
We shouldn’t think about the off-season yet, but I also want to note that the transfer portal is already filling up and that WNBA draft decisions need to come shortly following the conclusion of a team’s season. I’ll keep an eye on those things as much as I can just like last year, and I’ll plan on sending something in early May to check in on the state of things.
For now though, one game at a time. See you next week no matter what! Go Irish, beat Ladyjacks.